The Monkeypox virus is slowing down its spread, according to official data from “OurWorldInData”. I have watched the doubling time extend out from 3-4 days to 15 days now.
That means x15=2, where x is how fast it is growing every day. Solving for x we get x = exp( ln2 /15) = 1.04729.
So by Christmas (that is in 146 days) the number of cases will be (current number of cases) times 1.04729146 = 22,612 . 1.04729146 = 19.25 million.
The main assumption is that the growth rate does not slow down further as we quarantine people and vaccinate close contacts with the new smallpox vaccine.
On the other hand we may be missing monkeypox (#MPX) cases, and it may start to re-accelerate as it spreads into the general community. Currently is is largely spread by men having sex with men.
“A total of 98% of the cases documented were in gay or bisexual men, and while monkeypox is not an STI, per se, the authors said 95% of transmissions documented occurred during sexual relations. Seventy-five percent of case patients are white, and 41% are HIV-positive.” (sic)
We know from MPX in Africa that it is spread via contact skin to skin or from clothing. With the current evolved monkeypox virus spreading around the world there may also be an aerosol/droplet component to spreading. We do not know as yet.
There are also many misdiagnosed cases on monkeypox, as exemplified by this FB post. If it is being missed, the spread may be faster than we think.
As far as I know, out of the 22 thousand odd cases no-one in a western/rich country has died from monkeypox. The WHO says 5 people have died in Africa but I am not sure it is from this latest variant or from the Nigerian and Congo variants.
In any case monkeypox is a problem because it 13% of all infected are hospitalized. That is HUGE. Plus blindness can occur if the blisters form on the eyes and death can result from encephalitis.
Let’s compare to the prediction made by the bizarre NTI exercise, which says we will have 70 million cases by 10 January 2023. That is so close it is not funny.
ps. In the USA it is doubling every 9-10 days. It’s cumulative curve looks exponential too.