Dr George Christos

covid19 & Monkeypox (MPX)

MPX virus in 41 countries confirmed + 13 suspected. 3157 cases. NTI estimate on target.


Monkeypox is in 41 countries now confirmed plus another 13 unconfirmed.

The total number of confirmed cases is 3157. 3275 if we include the unconfirmed suspected cases.

Doubling is every 9 to 10 days. It seems to have stabilised on that figure for the last few weeks.

If I take 9.5 days as the doubling time then in 38 days time ( i.e 30 July 2022), there will be 3200 x 24 = 3200 x 16 = 51,200 cases. And then the following.

18 August 2022: 204,800 cases

6 September 2022: 819,200 cases

25 September 2022: 3.28 million cases

14 October 2022: 13.11 million cases

The doubling period will get extended as more restrictive measures are taken to stop it spreading. 70 million cases by 10 January is not inconceivable, as in the NTI (Nuclear Threat Initiative) exercise.


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