Monkeypox is in 41 countries now confirmed plus another 13 unconfirmed.
The total number of confirmed cases is 3157. 3275 if we include the unconfirmed suspected cases.
Doubling is every 9 to 10 days. It seems to have stabilised on that figure for the last few weeks.
If I take 9.5 days as the doubling time then in 38 days time ( i.e 30 July 2022), there will be 3200 x 24 = 3200 x 16 = 51,200 cases. And then the following.
18 August 2022: 204,800 cases
6 September 2022: 819,200 cases
25 September 2022: 3.28 million cases
14 October 2022: 13.11 million cases
The doubling period will get extended as more restrictive measures are taken to stop it spreading. 70 million cases by 10 January is not inconceivable, as in the NTI (Nuclear Threat Initiative) exercise.
3 responses to “MPX virus in 41 countries confirmed + 13 suspected. 3157 cases. NTI estimate on target.”
https://twitter.com/Monkeypoxtally/status/1539428153533284354?t=w3Ll708nloc2M6ctRrjzTg&s=07&fbclid=IwAR0V66eeFNucU2fqxeN7i8P3jEVMugwXG4ZAxcvo_GQOh9k_WAXStaVx1XQ
The World Health Network is urging the WHO to go ahead and make it official.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/citizens-initiative-declares-monkeypox-outbreak-a-pandemic-urges-who-action-101655956856418-amp.html?
[…] Monkeypox. We need to act now. #STOPTRAVEL. A straight line in a log graph signifies exponential growth. MPX virus in 41 countries confirmed + 13 suspected. 3157 cases. NTI estimate on target. […]