We can estimate how many people around you are infected right now, and how likely you are to catch covid19, by making a couple of assumptions.
From the UK data it seems about 1.9 million people are actively infected in the UK at any one time. This number was as high as 4.5 million people when Omicron first hit the UK. This is for a population of 67.22 million people. This number has fluctuated a bit but we will work with this latest value as it is the omicron ‘equilibrium’ value, and omicron is it at the moment. So 2.8% of the population is actively infected when the system settles into an pseudo-equilibrium.
Western Australia has a population of 2.67 million people.
2.8% of this is 74,760. WA currently has about 46,000 actively infected people. It is rapidly approaching its equilibrium value.
So when WA settles into an equilibrium there will be about 75,000 people infected at any one time. As one of these recovers another person gets infected so the number of actively infected stays close to 75,000. I think I predicted a value of 50,000, 8-9 months ago when the delta variant was dominant. This number can go up when a more contagious variant comes along or epidemiological restrictions are lifted.
Perth has about 350 suburbs with a population of 1.985 million people and about 650 towns with a population of 0.685 million.
But how accurate is this figure of the number of actively infected. Lots of people are asymptomatic who will not get tested even if they know they have been in close contact with infected people. Many would not even know. The number of asymptomatic people use to be about 30-40% before we have vaccines. These were not counted and are not counted now either, so to get the true number of infected people we have to multiply the official number of 75,000 by 1.35 (taking 35% as the midpoint value). With vaccines, there will also be many more people without symptoms or very mild symptoms so they will not get tested as all, especially among the younger people. I would guestimate that about twice as many as the official number of infected people are actually infected, or 5.6% of the population. The number could be even higher as Rapid Antigen (RAT) tests are widely used in Australia to hide numbers (another Paull Kelly, Brendan Murphy and Scott Morrison deceptive move). RATs are very unreliable being only 37% more accurate that a 50/50 toss for the omicron variant. See one of my other posts.
Why is this happening? Why are there so many people actively infected at any one time. We were told you were protected if you had the vaccine. That was all one big lie, to encourage people to get vaccinated. It turns out that most infected people are actually fully vaccinated.
I looked at the data from NSW from the first week of 2022, and concluded that 98.6% of all people who contacted covid19 were fully vaccinated. I have attached a link to a table I used and to two facebook posts, one on which i term the phrase “the disease of the vaccinated” in direct contrast to the claim by USA President Joe Biden that it is the disease of the unvaccinated.
What went wrong to generate such a large “virus pool ” in most countries around the world. For starters, all the governments got sucked in to the notion that the vaccines will fix everything, but herd immunity was never possible even with the delta variant which had an R naught value of around 10. The R naught value of omicron is around 30. If you look at the vaccine efficacy vs coverage vs R0 graph attached, you can see that even with complete coverage herd immunity is not possible. If we did not have some measures in place then the virus pool would be even larger.
To encourage people to get vaccinated (even though herd immunity was never possible) governments gave the vaccinated special freedoms like they could go to restaurants, bars, pubs, gyms, music events, sport events and nightclubs, etc if they were vaccinated. They would punish the unvaccinated even more than mandating many who did not take the vaccine, and losing their job for their “pro choice” by excluding them from these venues. This was a direct violation of these people’s human rights and most the vaccinated let it happen because they all turned into vaccist cunts. Not only was the WA government selling a lie but it was actually encouraging the spread of the virus amongst the vaccinated via aerosols.
That vaccines protect you from the coronavirus was such a big lie. The efficacy of pfizer and astrazeneca were respectively about 70% and 40% respectively to getting infected with the delta variant. Lots of vaccinated people were already being infected with the delta variant. The situation became even worse when WA opened up when the Omicron variant was the most prevalent. The efficacies of Pfizer and AZ were 30% and 7% respectively to the Omicron variant. After a new booster shot the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine would jump to 70% but fall to to around 30% after 2 months and go negative after 3 months.
As time passes we will not be able to re-vaccinate/booster so many people and many will essentially become unvaccinated before too long. It was all one big waste of time with the risks and harm associate with the unsafe vaccines.
Anyhow this means that the size of the virus pool will also grow from the 2 x 75,000 = 150,000 people, to what value I do not know. I think I am giving a best scenario estimate here as the States in Australia are actually also starting to relax restrictions etc..
We will have to live with a large virus pool indefinitely. Throwing away #zerocovid as most states did was the most stupid thing ever.
If 5.8% of the population is infected with covid19 at any time, then approximately 1 in 17 of all people in Western Australia will be or are currently infected at any time. That means every time you encounter 17 people you are likely to encounter someone who is infected. That is a best estimate scenario. So if you go to a medium sized supermarket you are likely to encounter 50 people say. Three of them are likely to be infected. Whether you contract the virus depends on how they and you act. If you are properly masked indoors (this turns out to be the most important factor) you chances of contracting covid19 are minimized. I myself take lots of other precautions I will not discuss in this post. Everyday in Western Australia about 16,000 to 20,000 people are infected (taking into account asymptomatic and mild cases). Your have a approximately a 1 in 150 chance you will become infected each day you go out. Your odds shorten or lengthen depending on how you act, how long you are out for , etc.. The fact that you may be vaccinated of not will soon be completely irrelevant as it was in the first week of 2022 in NSW. Unvaccinated people are like to be more cautious whereas the vaccinated suffer from “vaccine complacency” and the downright bullshit the government fed them.
Most people would not even know that aerosols are the main form of spread of covid19. 97% of all superspreading events are indoors and at least 96% of those are via aerosols. That is why it is important to wear mask inside and no inside is theoretically safe without masks. And there are mask sand there are masks. The best protection comes for N95/KN95 masks but even they are not fool proof. All you need is in virion in land in the right place at the right time and you could become infected depending on your immune response. Vaccines help a little but over time they actually start to make things worse as your immune system become exhausted looking only for the spike protein or it may even start thinking the spike protein is normal and give it free passage as when efficacies go negative and we have antibody dependent enhancement (ADE).
Here is a nice video I made on how the coronavirus spreads dating back to Sept. 2020.
So the more you go out, the more people you encounter in a dangerous situation. Indoors are the most unsafe places for contracting covid19.
Like I said it just takes just one virus particle if you were to be so unlucky. Normally when you smell something your nervous system requires about 40,000 molecules to decipher that smell. It may be as low as 4000 molecules or less for dogs, as they have a more sensitive olfactory nervous system. When I pass a woman wearing perfume and I can smell her perfume it make me think I may easily get the coronavirus.
The other big problem with these large virus pools is that they are were new variants are formed. The virus is happily living with the vaccines finding ways to get around the vaccines. It mutates until it breaks through. So this means we will always get new variants. This is why I said that vaccine complacency is why so many new variants are induced, I coined the phrase “vaccine induced variants”. This was very obvious when delta was predominant by looking at the most vaccinated countries like Israel, the UK and the USA.
Generally mutations weaken a virus but if a person if infected with two strain or variants at the same time and this is now quite likely with so many people constantly infected. When a person has 2 different RNA virus strains in a cell, the cell can read from either one of the strains and generate a new variant with is a crossover of the 2 variants. This is often called a recombinant. We had instances of this in early 2021 with people in Brazil and the USA generate recombinant variants. Omicron is likely to be a recombinant of the Wuhan strain and the Common cold. That is why is is so much weaker and so much more contagious. But recombination changes the genetic landscape drastically that anything can be generated. It can easily become more virulent.
At this very moment most scientists are concerned about a few “deltracron” variants that have been generated by combining the Omicron variant with the delta variant. One of them has been around for a good 3 months but has not been wiped out by Omicron as yet so it could emerge as the next predominant strain. It has the spike infectiousness of omicron but the most of the other dangerous genes of the delta variant that are more deadly.
The key point I am making is that we have to live with this virus permanently now and there is unlikely to be a vaccine fix. In fact if we analyse the situation objectively I would suggest vaccines have help us make a real mess of things. We could have eradicated the virus 3 times but we just could not #stoptravel.
There will always be a large virus pool from which new variants will form, so even if people develop immunity to one variant they will not be immune to new variants. This virus can become weaker one year but more deadly the year after.