Dr George Christos

covid19 & other Infectious diseases

BA.2.12.1 is most infectious. BA.2.2 is most deadly. BA.2.23 looks ominous.

I know this from what is going on in the USA and Hong Kong respectively. BA.2.12.1 is overtaking all other variants atm in the USA. BA.2.2 has a higher CFR than other BA.2.* variants.

Here is the genetic structure of their Spike protein some other BA.2 relatives. Once again I point out that BA.2 is very different to BA.1 and BA.3. BA.4 and BA.5 are similar to BA.2.

BA.2.2 has the mutation I1221T and BA.2.12.1 has the mutation L452Q. All we need is either to acquired the other’s mutation and we have a more infectious more virulent variant. This pandemic to far from over. BA.2.2 is the main concern. We may be fortunate to avoid this coming into Australia from Hong Kong. BA.2 seems to be growing in Honk Kong relative to BA.2.2. BA.2.23 also look ominous in the UK. The genetics of BA.2.23 has not been uploaded as yet. This means Omicron is already generating new variants beyond my last count of 73 on 24 April 2022. I would expect the number to balloon out to 200 omicron variants within the next 2 weeks or so.

Australia has been running on blind luck so far. Its days are numbered.

BA.4 and BA.5 are like BA.2 but have the extra mutation that was found on the delta variant, namely the L452R mutation. I would expect them to be possibly more virulent that BA.2.

Anything is possible still with such a large “virus pool” of 100 million vaccinated people (worldwide) walking around like zombies, with the virus actively mutating against a (fitness function)/barrier set by the immune response generated by the vaccines. New variants are constantly forming within almost all of these people and in some, who are infected with 2 variants, they can generate recombinant by crossover. The possibilities of change are dramatically improved by crossover. I know this because I studied the mathematics of genetic algorithms.

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