I have written about this before but we need to raise it again given that they (the dumb politicians) have decided to remove most mandates and restrictions in most states in Australia because of the federal election. No party wants to look like they are Nazi’s or dictators. The one mandate that was supported by science was masks. They have dumped that in WA as of today, but the other 2 mandates to vaccine passports (slightly watered down) and the need to get vaccinated to work in most jobs remain.
We will have serious problems. The efficacies of the mRNA vaccines drop to around 30% after 2 to 3 months, and go negative after that. A booster pushes up the efficacy to 70% (so they say) after a 2 couple of weeks, but then wanes very quickly and goes negative after 3 months. A negative efficacy means the vaccine is helping the virus and NOT you. A second booster or 4th dose is practically useless too. Plus you will be having to revaccinate every month or 2 as it wanes so quickly.
What all of this means is that effectively over the next couple of months, almost no-one will be effectively vaccinated. Many may be negatively vaccinated.
One also needs to take into account the fact that vaccinated have damaged their immune system with so much covid vaccine, that they will be pushed to handle the common flu or common cold. This is significant as winter is approaching.
And all of this, when new variants are at our doorstep. We will be dealing with a new waves of either BA.2.9, BA.2.12, BA.2.12.1 or the deadly BA.2.2 from Hong Kong. In addition to this BA.4 and BA.5 which have the L452R mutation found on the delta variants are now at our doorstep. A case of BA.4 was detected in NSW today. BA.4 had previously been detected in sewerage in Melbourne Victoria.
Yesterday I announced that a new subvariant BA.12 has been detected in India and in the USA, and it is believed that this variant is ten times more infectious than the standard Omicron. That will be upon us in about 3 months.
So what do I think will happen. We will have a huge surge in case numbers followed by many deaths over the next few months and while we are dealing with all of this, new variants will form and arrive on our shore, or we might generate our own deadly variant. This in inevitable as somewhere around 100 million people are actively infected in the world at any one time. Most of these people are vaccinated and the virus is finding new ways to mutate around the vaccine induced immunity.
After the election, some states may re-introduce mask mandates to try to control the rampant surge of case numbers and deaths I expect we will have.
Another reason they may be letting the virus rip now is to try to allow as many people as possible to get infected by BA.2 and develop some sort of natural immunity before BA.4, BA.5 and BA.12 come along, but we know little about these new variants and especially if reinfection is possible.
If this is their motive, to let everyone get infected with a milder version of Omicron, I still think it will take a good 4 months to achieve this, and as case numbers start to rise, people will shy away and the spread of the virus will be temporarily halted.