Dr George Christos

covid19 & other Infectious diseases

Recombinant variants XBF & XBC.1 growing fast in (Western) Australia. Where is XBB.1.5?

A few days ago the Victorian CHO Dr Brett Sutton said XBF had a prevalence of about 29% in Australia. (R1) (R2)

Since then I have watched it grow in Western Australia and the data set I have is a good week or 2 behind what the CHO has.

XBC.1 is a bigger concern to me. It is a recombinant with the old delta variant (so a ‘deltacron’) seemed to have survived in the Philippines and is now resurfacing in Australia. The problem is being a recombinant with a delta variant is worrisome as the CFR (case fatality rate) of the delta variant was ~3% compared to omicron’s 0.15%, twenty time higher.

XBF is a concern as it is a relatively unknown. It will soon be classified as a variant of concern. It only seems to be prevalent in Australia and in particular in South Australia and Western Australia. We should be able to say if it is more virulent. the problem being that the Australian governments (federal, state and territory) are hiding data from the public.

prevalence of variants in Western Australia over time
mutations of the spike protein for the most prevalent variants in WA

Here is the situation in Australia that I have. I am sure the prevalence of XBF has grown even more than 29% by now looking at the trend in this graph. Note that XBC.1 is also still growing.

From reports overseas the next wave will come for the super contagious variant XBB.1.5, but why has it not surfaced so much in Australia, the international capital of travel.

How to end the pandemic forever

There are no two ways about this. The variants are mutating too fast to keep making new vaccines, and mRNA vaccines are not really safe.

It has been suggested that we could target parts of the virus that do not mutate much but those parts are usually buried inside the virus and we need to prime our immune system for what is on the surface of the virus to recognise it quickly and react.

There is a way to break the shackles are get rid of covid once and for all, and that is for the world to go into a complete lockdown again like in March 2020, for 2 or 3 months, no travel, no bs.

I do not see the world as being too agreeable with this right now but things could change if a more virulent variant forms and the chances are it will.

Imagine how the world will act if the CFR of the coronavirus suddenly went back up to 3%. I believe this will happen too.

Otherwise we are destined to a slow death of our immune systems. I assume most of you know that most serious scientists are saying covid is very much akin to AIDS, just airborne.

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