Dr George Christos

covid19 & other Infectious diseases

Covid numbers in Australia could be 7 times the official count, OR.

We all know that the omicron variants are relatively weaker than the other coronavirus SARS-CoV2 variants, like Delta, Gamma, Alpha and Wuhan.

Results from South Africa suggested variant BA.5 was weaker than BA.1 and BA.2. I was puzzled to see the death number go up in Australia.

I was also surprised the case fatality rate (CFR). You can see from the graph below the CFR for covid19 infections was 0.05% in March 2022, and went up to 0.35% in August 2022. It multiplied by 7. That just does not make sense, if BA.5 is no more severe than BA.1 and BA.2. There are 2 possible explanations.

Firstly we could be undercounting the number of cases. For a constant CFR of 0.05% we would have to be currently undercounting cases by a factor of 7. By even more if BA.5 was meant to be weaker, as seen in South Africa.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is coronavirus-data-explorer-2022-09-06T185926.978-1024x723.png

The Australian public has become very complacent about the virus now. They could not care less. “It’s the old people dying.” So people are not getting tested if mild. Many would also be asymptomatic. But that seems a bit high, so maybe it is also correlated with vaccines (See below). If undercounting cases was the sole explanation of why the CFR is rising, we are undercounting cases in Australia by a factor of 7. !!

That seems a bit implausible as the only explanation. It would mean that today Australia had 64,750 cases when it reported only 9,250. And when Australia was having 50,000 cases a day in July 2022, it was really x 5 (0.25%/0.05%, see graphs) or 250,000 cases a day. Hmm?

So what is the other explanation. Vaccine could be in part also responsible for the apparent rise in the CFR in two ways. Assuming the vaccines partly worked against the Omicron variant at least against death then that efficacy might be waning faster than they think or the vaccines are responsible for the deaths directly. The poor ole people have all had 3 or 4 jabs with more coming. How much does it take before their immune system goes ADE (Antibody-dependent Enhancement), or the efficacy of the vaccine has become negative. I think this is very real/ In one of the graphs form NSW that I present you can clearly see that the more vax you have the more likely you are to die per capita. Per capita.

2 responses to “Covid numbers in Australia could be 7 times the official count, OR.”

  1. It seems 50 to 100 people dying a day is ok. Because they are old? I wonder what their view would be if they were children. Longcovid will start kicking in soon and this pandemic is far from over. Variant of concern BA,2,75 is just starting in Australia. Watch the next wave start in a week of two.


Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: