The monkeypox virus doubling time has slowed again. Now it is about 11.5 days. The last estimate about 2 weeks ago had it at 9.5 days. This slowing of the spread of monkeypox is due to actions being taken in Europe and North America where those with symptoms and close contacts are quarantined. I believe some countries are also giving close contacts a jab with the small pox vaccine. Further slowing is expected but the spread is naturally exponential and eventually it all catches up with you. .

If the number of cases is doubling every 11.5 days then x^11.5 = 2, and ln x = ln2/11.5, x = e ^ln2/11.5 = 1.06213.

So every day the number of cases increases by 1.06213. Note 1.06123^11.5 = 2.

Currently there are 9069 cases, confirmed in 57 countries. Unconfirmed in another 10 countries.

So in 30 day (8 August 2022) we will have 9069 (1.06213³⁰) = 55,321 cases

In 60 days ( 7 September 2022) we will have 9069 (1.06213⁶⁰) = 337,458 cases

In 90 days (7 October 2022) we will have 9069 (1.06213⁹⁰) = 2,058,497 cases

In 120 days (6 November 2022) we will have 9069 (1.06213¹²⁰) = 12,556,844 cases

In 150 days (6 December 2022) we will have 9069 (1.06213¹⁵⁰) = 76,596,823 cases

In 180 days (5 January 2023) we will have 9069 (1.06213¹⁸⁰) = 467,241,093 cases.

With more slowing expected, as the world starts to wake up to this new pandemic, the estimate by the NTI looks very close. They had 76 million cases at 10 January 2023. This makes their whole exercise a bit scary to say the least.

The monkeypox virus is still on its way to become the next pandemic.