About 2 weeks after I noted that the XBB variant is coming and that it is a recombinant variant, the Australian government authorities have started making announcements about a potential new wave of covid due to the XBB recombinant variant. It is interesting that they say it is our fourth wave whereas it is our 7th or 8th wave. The first wave was in March 2020, the second was in August 2020 in Victoria, followed by a delta variant wave in July 2021, an Omicron BA.1 wave in December 2021/January 2022, followed by a BA.2 wave, and a BA.5 wave in August 2022.

I have already noted before that we are now in a covid permanency phase, where we will be have regular waves of covid every 3 months or so. This is simply because we have lost control of the SARS-CoV2 virus, and because we have opened up our borders and allow people to get infected and travel and spread the virus and allow it to mutate (and/or crossover) inside individuals.

The announcement by Australian authorities that a new wave is coming is a backflip on what the Australian Government said in early September which implied the pandemic is over. All mask mandates were removed, and they stopped releasing data (disgusting) so people could not keep track of case numbers, deaths and variants. I noted at the time that this was a political stunt, and that the pandemic is far from over.

Based on case numbers in Singapore where the XBB variant is now prevalent, I have estimated that Australia will be at 30,000 to 40,000 cases a day soon. It is hard to ascertain the validity of case numbers in Australia because of the message given out by Australian authorities that the pandemic is over. Lots of people are not testing. Singapore are having about 3000 cases a day. That would translate to about 15,000 cases a day in Australia, but because we are not using masks (Singapore is), I expect we will peak at well above this level.

There is currently no evidence that the XBB variant is more virulent/deadly than other variants, but that was pure luck, as recombinant variants can do quantum jumps in genetics. The XBB variant is the crossover love child from BA.2.75 and BA.2.10.1. I believe the crossover point was on the spike protein.

Six things to know about the new XBB COVID variant << news article, Financial Review 6 Nov. 2022.